First Law of Statistics

(Bill Hanlon/Hanlon’s Razor) – Why are so many people so easily misinformed about issues that concern them – especially public education? The answer is simple enough, they just don’t know the 1st Law of Statistics. That first law simply states; ask the next question.

Suppose your child comes home and tells you he got ten correct on a test, what does that mean? Well, until you ask the next question, you just don’t know. If there were ten questions, that might sound pretty good. If there were 100 questions, then maybe that is not so good. You’d also like to think that someone might ask what types of questions were being asked. What does it mean if you have an average of 30%, is that good or bad? In sports, a baseball player batting 30% is an all-star. In basketball, shooting 30% from the free throw line will get you benched. It is very important that the general public does not accept statistics on face value – questions need to be asked or the statistic won’t be useful.

The state of Nevada receives a great deal of criticism regarding our ranking with respect to public education; tests results, graduation rates, drop out rates, class size to name a few. If I were allowed to do what most states are currently doing, I could raise the graduation rate and lower the drop out rate in Nevada in less than an hour. How? Nevada is one of only 26 states that have a high school exit exam (High School Proficiency Exam). That means students in 24 states who have sufficient credits for graduation, graduate. That does not happen in Nevada. Nevada also has one of the highest credit requirements for graduation around the nation, in Clark County 22.5 credits are needed for graduation. If I lowered that credit requirement to the national average, approximately 20 credits, then even more students would graduate and less would have the tendency to drop out. See how easy it is to manipulate statistics when questions are not asked. And an added benefit, students could retake classes during the school day, thus saving large sums of money on remediation. Nevada, with all its deficits, ranks 6th in the nation with the percentage of students taking algebra by 8th grade. Why is that? We are such paper tigers.

Educational research suggests that students who attend one high school are less likely to drop out than students who attend multiple schools during their high school experience. Anyone who has lived in southern Nevada knows that many of our students have had to transfer to other schools because of growth. That’s problematic for students. While I have not seen any research on the transiency of teachers and administrators, I would venture that movement caused by the opening of new schools would take a toll on students as well.

Too often when Nevada is being compared to other states, statistical comparisons that “lower” our performance and place us on the bottom of a list are never mentioned. Accountability has always been big in this state, but not when it comes to the public knowing the facts.

A study by the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce found that teachers in Nevada were being paid below the national average. But to listen to some citizens, you’d think the opposite was true. Add to that, Nevada has experienced a shortage of teachers in critical areas such as math, science, and special education for a number of years. In fact, in math during the last three or four years, approximately 7,500 – 10,000 students per year did not have a qualified math teacher in secondary education. I’m thinking that might have a negative impact on student achievement. To address these shortages, the district used Teach for America, Troops to Teachers, retired teachers, and other alternative routes to get teachers in areas of critical need in the classroom – still experiencing that shortage.

Education gets blasted in a very public way when the kids don’t do well on end-of- semester exams. That’s fair, but how many districts or states give these common assessments to determine how their students are actually performing, how are they being held accountable?

Very few argue that more needs to be invested in public education, class sizes in Nevada are some of the largest in the nation. It is not unusual to see a first year algebra class with 38 to 42 students in them. Those class sizes can not be good for increasing student achievement.

Nevada also gets ridiculed because so few, about 40%, of our students take the college entrance exams (ACT or SAT) and go on to college. In Massachusetts, about 70% of the students take those tests. Why is that? Digging just a little deeper, asking the next question, might lend some insight as to why Nevada students don’t take those tests. In Massachusetts, about 70% of the adult population has some college experience. In Nevada, about 40% of the adult population has some college experience. Think about that for a second, parental attitudes and experiences have an impact on students going beyond secondary education. In fact, Nevada ranks second to last with the percentage of adults attaining a post secondary degree – somewhere around 20%. For public education to raise those rates, they are going to need a great deal of help from home to change those attitudes.

Unfortunately, the help will only be in the form addressing of the importance of a good education – attitude. With those statistics, it is doubtful that a good percentage of the adult population in Nevada with kids in junior or senior high school will be able to help their own children academically.

Yes, we need to improve public education. Nobody argues that point. The problem is most arguments ring hollow because Nevadans don’t ask the next question that is required to get information, understand and interpret data before making a decision. Yes, in Nevada, ignorance is bliss! The less you know, the more you talk. Thus the axiom, empty barrels make the most noise.