(Chuck Muth) – Interesting discussion among some of us at today’s “Campaign Leadership College” about Donald Trump’s regularly-reported big (“yuge”) lead in various polls. Those poll numbers have been repeated by the former president and his MAGA supporters over and over again to excuse why Trump isn’t participating in the presidential debates. But are they the result of a new version of “The Bradley Effect”? For those not familiar, here’s an explanation from Wikipedia… “The Bradley Effect is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. “The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. “It was named after Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election to California attorney general George Deukmejian, a white person, despite Bradley being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.” I think we can all agree there’s a particularly toxic flavor to this year’s GOP presidential primary contest – even more so than in 2016. As such… Are voters afraid to tell pollsters who they’re REALLY supporting? But even more to the point… Are Republican voters who have supported Trump in the past – but have since either soured on him or have come to believe that a different presidential candidate would have a better shot at winning the 2024 general election – “hiding” their support for a different candidate out of fear of backlash or ridicule from MAGA supporters? “The Trump Effect.” So… If you’re someone who has supported Trump in the past but are QUIETLY supporting a different presidential candidate this time around, I’d like to hear from you. If you’re a “Trump or Die” supporter, you can sit this one out. To be clear, I’m not asking WHO you’re supporting right now or why. What I want to know is if you’re keeping your support for the other candidate to yourself – other than family and close friends – and not saying anything to anyone publicly – such as at a GOP meeting or other event – for fear of backlash or ridicule from MAGA supporters. If so, lemme know. If you’ve personally encountered such a hostile interaction and care to share the experience, great. And don’t worry. We’re close friends. Your secret is safe with me. I will NOT disclose your identity publicly here. This is just between you and me. Hush, hush. On the QT. By the way… We just wrapped up the FINAL lecture – 39 in total, plus lunch presentations! – on our FINAL school day. The FINAL exam will be conducted tomorrow morning when all six “teams” who have been working together the last eight days will present, in front of the whole class, our WRITTEN campaign plans for a specific Virginia legislative race we’ve been assigned to cover. Our heads are swimming, but our spirits are sky-high. Can’t wait to bring a LOT of this back to all of you in Nevada on Monday. We’re gonna kick some a** and get some sh*t done. And we’re gonna win some races nobody thinks can be won. Hope many of you will join us. Saddle up. We ride at dawn! Cheers. 7 Worst Habits of Highly Unelectable People
- Picking the wrong race
- Picking the wrong district
- Picking the wrong issues
- Picking the wrong time
- Picking the wrong consultants
- Picking unnecessary fights with the media
- Picking door-knocking over fundraising
Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views, and founder of CampaignDoctor.com. You can sign up for his conservative, Nevada-focused e-newsletter at MuthsTruths.com. His views are his own.
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