{"id":47174,"date":"2024-03-16T12:58:35","date_gmt":"2024-03-16T19:58:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/?p=47174"},"modified":"2024-04-02T03:32:04","modified_gmt":"2024-04-02T10:32:04","slug":"the-field-is-set-lets-get-ready-to-rummmble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/the-field-is-set-lets-get-ready-to-rummmble\/","title":{"rendered":"The Field is Set, Let\u2019s Get Ready to Rummmble!"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/em><\/p>\n

(Chuck Muth)<\/em>\u00a0\u2013 Aannndd\u2026they\u2019re off!<\/p>\n

With the possible exception of candidates withdrawing over the next week, the match-ups for this election cycle in Nevada are set.\u00a0 A look at some of the key races while I take a break from my book-writing project\u2026<\/p>\n

In the U.S. Senate race against Democrat incumbent\u00a0Jacky Rosen<\/strong>, Republicans are likely to nominate\u00a0Sam Brown<\/strong>.\u00a0 Money makes a difference, and he\u2019s successfully swamped the field by raising over $3 million going into the primary and has the backing of the GOP establishment.<\/p>\n

Personally, I think\u00a0Tony Grady<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 with his breadth of life experience – is the best-qualified candidate for the job. But in politics, it\u2019s not the best candidate who wins.\u00a0 It\u2019s the best campaign.\u00a0 And Tony, unfortunately, has been unable to catch fire with donors.<\/p>\n

The wild card in this race might be\u00a0Jeff Gunter<\/strong>, but only *if* he self-funds his campaign to the tune of a couple million dollars and is somehow able to land\u00a0Donald Trump\u2019s<\/strong>\u00a0endorsement.\u00a0 And if Trump\u2019s followers \u2013 many of whom are already supporting Brown \u2013 switch over to his camp.\u00a0 A heavy lift.<\/p>\n

Perennial candidate\u00a0Jim Marchant<\/strong>\u00a0is running a vanity campaign on \u201celection fraud\u201d but has gotten little traction.\u00a0 He\u2019d lose this race in a landslide of\u00a0Sigal Chattah<\/strong>\u00a0proportions if he\u2019s the GOP nominee.<\/p>\n

Stephanie Phillips<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 who should have run for a legislative seat instead \u2013 is playing the gender card: \u201cIt takes a woman to beat a woman.\u201d\u00a0 But Republican voters don\u2019t play identity politics the way Democrats do.<\/p>\n

Bottom line: This is Brown\u2019s race to lose. But\u00a0there\u2019s a fly in his anointment.<\/p>\n

The wild card will be in the general election, with conservative\u00a0Janine Hansen<\/strong>\u00a0launching a third-party bid.\u00a0 Janine has high name ID for a third-party candidate and is likely to pull 2-3 percent, enough to make the difference in a close race.<\/p>\n

In Nevada\u2019s 1st<\/sup>\u00a0congressional district race, the front-runner is\u00a0Fleming Larsen<\/strong>.\u00a0 Larsen scored an impressive second-place finish in his state Assembly race in 2022 in a Democrat district and has put together a solid campaign.<\/p>\n

His nearest competitor is\u00a0Mark Robertson<\/strong>, who was the GOP nominee for this seat last time out.\u00a0 But Larsen to date has been running a far more impressive campaign. The other candidates who filed trail well behind the pair.<\/p>\n

In Nevada\u2019s 2nd<\/sup>\u00a0congressional district, no Democrat filed against incumbent Republican\u00a0Mark Amodei<\/strong>, who will easily win his primary and hold the seat.<\/p>\n

In Nevada\u2019s 3rd<\/sup>\u00a0congressional district, newcomer and late-entry\u00a0Marty O\u2019Donnell<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 with the backing of Team Lombardo \u2013 is likely to emerge from the GOP primary as the party\u2019s nominee against a half-dozen challengers who don\u2019t have the juice to go the distance.<\/p>\n

In Nevada\u2019s 4th<\/sup>\u00a0congressional district, expect former legislator and former North Las Vegas mayor\u00a0John Lee<\/strong>\u00a0to easily dispatch\u00a0Dave Flippo<\/strong>, who picked the wrong race and the wrong district at the wrong time.<\/p>\n

In the State Senate, Republicans need to hold three competitive seats and\/or flip one or two Democrat\u00a0seats to avoid ending up in a super-minority. And it doesn\u2019t look good.<\/p>\n

In Senate District 18 in Clark County \u2013 currently held by Republican\u00a0Scott Hammond<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 the likely GOP nominee will be Lombardo-endorsed\u00a0John Steinbeck<\/strong>, who is currently the Clark County fire chief.<\/p>\n

Conservative Assemblyman\u00a0Richard McArthur<\/strong>\u00a0also filed for this seat in the primary, but historically has had trouble raising money.\u00a0 He was able to overcome that challenge in his Assembly district but is not likely to prevail at the Senate level.<\/p>\n

In Senate District 15 in Washoe County, Democrats gerrymandered the district to the point where even liberal Republican incumbent\u00a0Heidi Gansert<\/strong>\u00a0would have a tough time holding the seat had she run for re-election.<\/p>\n

The likely GOP nominee will be former conservative Assemblywoman\u00a0Sharron Angle<\/strong>. But Angle\u2019s the wrong fit for this new Democrat-majority district and is unlikely to hold the seat in November.<\/p>\n

Senate District 5 in Clark County is currently held by Republican\u00a0Carrie Buck<\/strong>.\u00a0 She\u2019s being challenged in the primary by three guys from California \u2013\u00a0Richard Frederick<\/strong>,\u00a0Rich Fayden<\/strong>, and\u00a0Richard Auchmoody II<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 who are all the same guy.\u00a0\u00a0Click here<\/a>\u00a0if you missed my column on this shyster.<\/p>\n

The problem for Buck is that the \u201cThree Dicks\u201d will force Buck to spend crucial dollars winning the primary, leaving her much more vulnerable than she already is in the general.<\/p>\n

If Buck and Angle lose in the general, Republicans will need to hold Hammond\u2019s seat and flip two Democrat seats.<\/p>\n

The best blue-to-red opportunity is in Senate District 11.\u00a0 Lombardo-endorsed\u00a0Lori Rogich<\/strong>\u00a0will make quick work of her GOP primary opponent and then turn her sights on incumbent Democrat\u00a0Dallas Harris<\/strong>.\u00a0 Tough race, but Rogich is a solid candidate with backing.\u00a0 An upset wouldn\u2019t surprise me.<\/p>\n

The tougher race is in Senate District 6, currently held by Senate Majority Leader\u00a0Nicole Cannibizzaro<\/strong>.\u00a0 The likely GOP nominee will be\u00a0Jill Douglass<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 currently president of Battle Born Republican Women. She\u2019ll be wildly outspent in the race and will need to make up the difference with a flawless volunteer ground campaign and hope the political winds shift the GOP\u2019s way in the fall.<\/p>\n

One other Senate race of note\u2026<\/p>\n

In Senate District 19 \u2013 currently held by termed-out Republican Sen.\u00a0Pete Goicoechea<\/strong>\u00a0and stretching from Elko to Pahrump \u2013 former conservative Assemblyman\u00a0John Ellison<\/strong>\u00a0is the favorite in the primary against two Pahrump candidates who should have run for something else or not run at all.<\/p>\n

The winner of the primary in this district will win the general, as no sacrificial lamb Democrat candidate fell on their sword and filed.<\/p>\n

In the State Assembly, Republicans need to flip one net seat to get out of their super-minority status, providing they hold onto two competitive GOP incumbent seats.<\/p>\n

Assemblywoman\u00a0Heidi Kasama<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 who eschewed a congressional run to better protect her AD2 seat \u2013 avoided a primary when Clark Couty GOP chief\u00a0Jesse Law<\/strong>\u00a0withdrew and didn\u2019t file.\u00a0 But she did draw a last-minute Democrat candidate who will give her a run for her money.\u00a0 Still, Kasama is likely to hold the seat.<\/p>\n

In AD4,\u00a0Lisa Cole<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 endorsed by Gov.\u00a0Joe Lombardo<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 is a very strong candidate who should hold this seat, which is being vacated by Assemblyman McArthur.\u00a0 No walk in the park, but Cole is solid.<\/p>\n

All other incumbent R\u2019s are in safe seats, a number of whom didn\u2019t draw any opponents at all and will be running unopposed.<\/p>\n

In the Assembly\u2019s top tier of competitive races where Gov. Lombardo has already endorsed a candidate, the GOP is in pretty good shape.<\/p>\n

Diana Sande<\/strong>\u00a0(AD25-Washoe),\u00a0Rebecca Edgeworth<\/strong>\u00a0(AD35-Clark), and\u00a0David Brog<\/strong>\u00a0(AD37-Clark) avoided primaries and can immediately start focusing on the general.<\/p>\n

Rafael Arroyo<\/strong>\u00a0(AD41) and\u00a0Annette Owens<\/strong>\u00a0(AD29) have only token primary opponents and should emerge pretty much unscathed.<\/p>\n

A far-more contentious primary will be in AD21 (Clark), where Lombardo-endorsed\u00a0April Arndt<\/strong>\u00a0will be squaring off against\u00a0Jon Petrick<\/strong>, who lost in his bid for this seat in 2022.\u00a0 Expect this one to be a nasty barn-burner, which could cost Republicans this otherwise flippable seat.<\/p>\n

Of the second-tier Assembly races, Republicans with a realistic shot at flipping a Dem seat if they catch a couple of breaks include\u00a0Kelly Chapman<\/strong>\u00a0(AD8-Clark) and\u00a0Brandon Davis<\/strong>\u00a0(AD34-Clark).<\/p>\n

Another race to keep an eye on is AD9 in Clark County, currently held by Democrat Assembly Speaker\u00a0Steve \u201cDonut Boy\u201d Yeager<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Yeager has been under fire for months now over reports that he ran a \u201cfavor factory\u201d in Carson City where Assembly Democrats used their offices to shovel tax dollars to favored charities.\u00a0 Oh, and he also drew a Democrat primary opponent, though I doubt it\u2019s a credible threat.<\/p>\n

Republican\u00a0Erica Neely<\/strong>, who ran for school board in 2022, stands as a stark contrast to Yeager\u2019s opposition to giving parents the right to choose their kids\u2019 schools.<\/p>\n

Yeager\u2019s race in 2022 against a nominal GOP opponent was a lot closer than you\u2019d have expected.\u00a0 He\u2019s gonna have his hands full with Erica if she puts together a credible campaign \u2013 especially with Team Lombardo gunning for him.<\/p>\n

Of important note for Republicans, none of these legislative candidates drew third-party opponents who can draw enough support away in the general election to throw the seat to the Dems \u2013 as hair-brained Libertarian\u00a0Mindy Robinson<\/strong>\u00a0did in AD35 in 2022.<\/p>\n

Overall, if Nevada Republicans don\u2019t blow it by nominating candidates in the primary who can\u2019t\/won\u2019t win the general, they\u2019re in pretty good shape this cycle.\u00a0 Some really, really, really solid candidates \u2013 *IF* \u2013 they put together really, really, really solid campaigns.<\/p>\n

Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines.<\/p>\n

Oh, and Happy St. Paddy\u2019s Day!<\/p>\n

7 Habits of Highly Unelectable People<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Picking the wrong race<\/li>\n
  2. Picking the wrong district<\/li>\n
  3. Picking the wrong issues<\/li>\n
  4. Picking the wrong time<\/li>\n
  5. Picking the wrong consultants<\/li>\n
  6. Picking unnecessary fights with the media<\/li>\n
  7. Picking door-knocking over fundraising<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    FAMOUS LAST WORDS<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u201cThe Democrats are trying to achieve a supermajority (in the Nevada Legislature) because they believe that\u2019s to the benefit of the state, which I absolutely disagree with.\u00a0 I have vetted candidates, I have identified candidates, I have recruited candidates, I am raising money for candidates to help with their success, to ensure that we prevent (a veto-proof supermajority).\u201d \u2013\u00a0Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo, 3\/12\/24<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views, and founder of CampaignDoctor.com.\u00a0 You can sign up for his conservative, Nevada-focused e-newsletter at MuthsTruths.com.\u00a0 His views are his own.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    (Chuck Muth)\u00a0\u2013 Aannndd\u2026they\u2019re off! With the possible exception of candidates withdrawing over the next week, the match-ups for this election cycle in Nevada are set.\u00a0 A look at some of the key races while I take a break from my book-writing project\u2026 In the U.S. Senate race against Democrat incumbent\u00a0Jacky Rosen, Republicans are likely to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":42053,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[748],"tags":[3466],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47174"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47174"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47174\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47175,"href":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47174\/revisions\/47175"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/42053"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nevadanewsandviews.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}