In 2024, Republican Stephanie Phillips ran for the U.S. Senate in Nevada against Sen. Jacky Rosen with one of the dumbest “identity politics” slogans you’ll ever wanna hear:
“It takes a woman to beat a woman.”
She came in 7th.
In the PRIMARY.
With 2.23% of the vote.
Losing even to “None of the Above.”
I don’t know who the political consultant/advisor was who persuaded her this was a winning message, but they should be sued for malpractice.
Playing identity politics is the worst way to select a nominee – but that’s the way the GOP “establishment” and most consultants play the game.
- “We need a black businessman.”
- “We need a Hispanic soccer mom.”
- “We need a trans, albino, little person.”
- “We need a moderate female elected official and former teacher who’s married to a retired law enforcement officer.”
That last one seems to have been the criteria used to anoint Nevada State Sen. Carrie Buck as the GOP establishment’s pick for Nevada’s 1st Congressional District to go up against long term incumbent Democrat Rep. Dina Titus.
Oof.
Her selection seems more to do with whether Sen. Buck can raise enough money to pay her professional campaign consultants than to actually beat Titus.
One of my mentor’s (Newt Gingrich) favorite sayings is, “Real change requires real change.”
We played the identity politics game in CD1 the last two elections. Republicans nominated a respectable Mormon family man, a military veteran, and a small businessman.
Checked all the right boxes, right?
Titus chewed him up and spit him out. She’s a vicious, political bare-knuckle brawler. And nice guys finish last.
This isn’t a knock on Sen. Buck as a person. I’ve known her a long time – dating back to when she was a principal at a Henderson elementary school. A wonderful educator.
But her political instincts are terrible.
Just a month after taking her seat in the Legislature, she called and asked what I thought about her running for chairman of the Clark County Republican Party. I told her it was insane – for a boatload of reasons.
She did it anyway.
The race quickly became a circus – before it became a train wreck.
Intra-party Central Committee politics ain’t for the feint of heart and no place for can’t-we-all-get-along kumbayas. It’s more like the Hatfield-McCoy family feud.
And that experience will seem like a walk in the park compared to a congressional race against a cut-throat like Dina Titus.
Sen. Buck would be put through a sausage grinder that, in my opinion, she’s just not ready for. You can see it in her social media posts already.
Here’s the thing…
The average voter isn’t paying attention to politics this early in the process. It’s pretty much only the hard-core political activists who are. And they’re evaluating candidates based on their early campaigning on social media.
So let’s take a look at Sen. Buck’s campaign announcement on X back on August 5th…
“Today, I’m proud to announce my campaign for Congress. As a teacher, charter school leader, and conservative State Senator, I’ve fought to turn around failing schools, empower parents, and bring real accountability to government. I’m ready to bring the same to Washington, because our families deserve a leader who gets results and puts Nevadans first.”
Ugh. Not exactly a barn-burner. It’s typical, consultant-driven, content-free drivel that focuses on the candidate, not the voter. It’s me-me-me-me-me.
Never mentions Titus. Never mentions the personal problems voters are facing.
And who sits around the dinner table and says, “Gee, I wish there was a candidate out there who would bring real accountability to government?”
That would be…nobody.
Here’s a newer one from a couple days ago…
“It was an honor to speak at the Henderson Conservatives event last week. Thank you, Howell Shaw for bringing the sold out crowd! Great food and conversation with super smart people in our community.”
Snore (zzzzzz).
Sen. Buck’s social media posts violate the cardinal rule of politics: Don’t be boring!
What’s not boring, you ask?
Fights. Fights make news. Which means you have to actually get in the ring and throw some punches – ESPECIALLY if you’re a challenger.
It’s not enough to just “say” you’re a fighter. Remember that famous quote by Margaret Thatcher?
“Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren’t.”
Same with claiming you’re a fighter.
So what issue is Sen. Buck known for fighting for in Carson City? Yeah, I can’t think of one either.
I’m not saying she hasn’t been on the right side of issues – such as gun rights, school choice, crime, immigration, election integrity, etc.
I’m saying she hasn’t been a boat-rocking, tip-o’-the-spear leader on any of those issues – you know, the way former conservative Assemblywoman Annie Black was.
As Nevada News & Views political writer Brittany Sheehan reminded us last week, Annie FOUGHT “the man” during the COVID session – and was summarily censured by the Democrats.
She also proposed and fought for solid conservative legislation – knowing the Democrats would kill them. But that wasn’t the point.
It was about actually fighting for what you believe rather than raising a white flag before the battle even begins. Or not show up for the battle at all – which is what most Carson City Republicans do.
Remember that scene in Braveheart where Mel Gibson’s “William Wallace” character – adorned in war paint and on the back of a horse – was asked by Hamish where he was going?
The response: “I’m going to pick a fight.”
I just don’t see that kind of fire-in-the-belly from Sen. Buck. And to beat Dina Titus, Republicans need a William Wallace, not a Mr. Belvedere (ask your mom).
But here’s my biggest concern: She’s playing without risk. Let me explain…
Upon landing in Mexico, Spanish conquistador Hernán Cortés is said to have burned his ships to prevent retreat, forcing his men to conquer or die. The event became emblematic of “no turning back.”
That’s not where Sen. Buck is.
She just won a new four-year term last year. So even if she loses to Titus, she’ll still have her state senate seat to fall back on.
Meaning running against Titus isn’t exactly a do-or-die, no-turning-back proposition for her.
If Sen. Buck wants Republicans to believe she’s really “all-in,” she should resign her state senate seat – essentially burning the boats.
And THAT would sharpen her focus, as well as her teeth and claws.
Instead – at least from what I’ve seen so far – she’s just going through the motions and running a standard issue, paint-by-the-numbers, cookie-cutter campaign that DC consultants love.
After all, they get paid – win or lose.
I’ll wrap this up with another bright red warning sign…
The average House challenger typically raises between $150,000 – $300,000 in the third quarter of the year leading into the election year.
High-profile House challengers in competitive districts often surpass $1 million for the quarter – an emerging benchmark for “top-tier” or “credible challenger” status.
Well, yesterday Sen. Buck announced her fundraising total for the third quarter: $146,000.
Not exactly setting the world on fire – despite the widespread perception that she’s a top-tier candidate with the backing of the GOP establishment in a competitive district.
Worse, this was the same quarter as her announcement – generally the high-water mark when supporters cough up to give the candidate a big send-off.
If $146,000 is all she could raise with all the king’s horses and all the king’s donors behind her, what’s that tell you?
Again, this doesn’t mean Sen. Buck is a bad person – or even a bad conservative. Just the wrong person for the wrong race at the wrong time.
And as Clint Eastwood said in Magnum Force, “A man’s got to know his limitations.”
Personally, I think Sen. Buck has made another political mistake in allowing herself to be talked into this race.
My recommendation would be a strategic retreat and consider running for a different seat if she’s determined to try to move up the ladder next year.
Like, maybe, Secretary of State.
Nevada SOS Cisco Aguilar is the pits and Sen. Buck knows the issues related to election security.
She’s faced the problems in the Legislature. And she’d make a STRONG challenger to the Cisco Kid. She could beat him.
But don’t hold your breath waiting for such a common-sense change in direction. Her high-priced consultants won’t let it happen.
They’re more interested in the paycheck that comes with a congressional race than an obscure state race that few people are paying attention to.
Which brings us to the big question: If Sen. Buck isn’t the candidate who can take out Dina Titus next year, is Bobby Khan?
Conventional wisdom says no. But that’s the same conventional wisdom I heard about Dennis Hof – the infamous “pimp” brothel owner – running for the Nevada Legislature.
But Dennis won with 62% of the vote – three weeks after he DIED!
I’ll give you my assessment of Bobby’s chances in the 5th and final edition of “Toppling Titus.” More fun to come.
