2024 Election Predictions?

(Chuck Muth) – Folks, all I have are gut feelings here.  I’m not reading the polls or early voting results.  Just gauging what I’m seeing, hearing, and feeling.  Some thoughts…

Trump wins Nevada.

Maybe by enough to pull Sam Brown over – but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. His campaign has been awful.

Republicans lose CD1 and hold CD2.  CD3 and CD4 are anyone’s guess.  Will depend entirely on how well Trump does.  Gotta hope he wins with long coattails.

GOP loses Heidi Gansert’s state senate seat in Washoe and holds Carrie Buck’s seat in Clark.  Whether Republicans stay out of a super-minority will all come down to SD 11 in Clark.

Looking for Lori Rogich to squeak by and flip the seat from blue to red if Trump wins.

In the Assembly, Republicans will hold AD2 (Kasama) and AD4 (Cole).  And they’ll get out of the super-minority. Only question is how many seats they flip.

If they only flip one, they’ll protect Gov. Lombardo’s vetoes and that’ll be a huge victory.  But I’m looking at potentially picking up three to five seats – including ousting Democrat Assembly Majority Leader Sandra Jauregui.

And maybe, just maybe, knocking out Democrat Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager.  All depends on how non-partisan voters swing in this district.  Erica Neely is definitely in the game. Could be the “upset of the year.”

Unfortunately, Question 3 (rigged choice voting) and Question 6 (third-trimester abortions) are likely to pass.  Fortunately, Question 7 (photo ID) will also pass.

All, pure guesses.  But I know this: The time for “persuasion” is over.  Now it’s all about turnout.  If the GOP can boost turnout among low-propensity Republican voters, it could be a very good night for them tomorrow.

Or not.

 2024 Election Night Watch Party in Vegas

Tuesday, November 5th
5:00PM – 9:00PM
Ahern Events Center – Floor 1
Reception-style seating (first come, first serve)

FREE ADMISSION!

$5/$6 pizza by the slice
$5 craft & draft beers
Table games (giant Jenga, connect four)

* * * * * * *

VIP BUFFET WATCH PARTY ($45pp)
Vita Bella Wine Bar – Floor 2
VIP Lounge-style seating (first come, first serve)

Buffet will be served from 5:00PM – 8:00PM
All-you-can-eat buffet including shrimp cocktail & charcuterie
Each guest receives a complimentary glass of wine

PURCHASE TICKETS

NEVADA NEWS & VIEWS

Sutton: Like It or Not, The Next President Must Be a ‘War Time’ President 
Unlike the year 2000, we should have a clear view in 2024 of what challenges lie ahead. (Nevada Globe)

Nevada congressional candidate’s fundraising tactics raise eyebrows
Questions raised over Drew Johnson’s $422,000 loan. (LV Sun)

How do I register to vote in Nevada for the 2024 election? It’s not too late.
Nevadans who are not yet registered to vote have one more chance to sign up for tomorrow’s election. (RGJ)

Was your mail-in ballot rejected in Nevada? Here’s how to check
Counties across Nevada had rejected or failed to verify signatures on more than 15,000 mail-in ballots as of Saturday. (KLAS)

Money pouring in for Nevada’s competitive legislative races
Candidates in 10 of the competitive legislative races have raised over $6 million this year in a fight over the control of the Legislature. (LVRJ)

Nonpartisans key in the 2024 election, early voting numbers show
Half of Nevada’s registered voters have already cast a ballot. Here’s what the voting turnout indicates. (LVRJ)

Washoe County Manager Caught Drinking At Local Bar While on Medical Leave
Brown is reportedly on an extended medical leave due to contracting pneumonia “last week.” (Nevada Globe)

X MARKS THE SPOT

  • Have a tissue ready when you read this tribute to Peanut & Fred. X
  • Can we please not forget FRED the Raccoon he was also killed like Peanut the Squirrel. X
  • Here’s the woman who ratted out Peanut and Fred. X
  • Biden says Trump supporters are the “kind of guys you’d like to smack in the a$$.” X
  • President Joe “Dank Brandon” Biden addresses his comments about ‘smacking republican asses.’ X
  • Leader of the free world gets off his plane, walks right past his car, and wanders aimlessly down the runway. Kamala hid this from the world and denies it to this day. X
  • FCC Commissioner blasts Harris’ SNL appearance as ‘clear and blatant effort’ to evade Equal Time rule. X
  • Kamala is running pro-Palestine ads in Michigan while simultaneously running pro-Israel ads in PA. X
  • Top Kamala Surrogate John Fetterman has no confidence in Kamala’s ability to win Pennsylvania. X
  • Rich whites with Harris signs are terrified after receiving letters thanking them for accepting “to house a migrant family.” X
  • Are You Garbage? Know The Signs. X
  • Vegas strip club has installed images of Trump dressed as Captain America & Elon Musk dressed as Iron Man. X
  • Kamala campaign called the cops on journalist for posting photos of a poorly-attended ‘rally’ featuring Hillary. X
  • Lily Tang Williams DEMOLISHES David Hogg on gun control in under a minute. X
  • SJSU assistant women’s volleyball coach suspended for objecting to man playing on her team. X
  • Walgreens in San Francisco. No amount of locks and security can stop these thieves. X
  • Horrific footage: Cops shót a criminal multiple times after he attacks them. X
  • These two pitbulls caused $3,000 in damage to this car while attempting to hunt a cat. X
  • Woman deports her boyfriend for cheating on her. X
  • A Day Without Steve Inman is a Day Without Sunshine. X

CANDIDATE RECOMMENDATIONS

For my most up-to-date list of recommendations, click here.

NOTE: These recommendations are subject to change right up through Election Day.

FAMOUS LAST WORDS

“Imagine 10 armed agents of the state walk into your house, detain you and your significant other outside of your own home, question you like common criminals, then, euthanize your pets based on an anonymous complaint after tossing your entire house. It’s not about the squirrel.” – Josh Brooks

“If Kamala wins, you are 3 days away from the start of a 1929-style economic depression. If I win, you are 3 days away from the best jobs, the biggest paychecks, and the brightest economic future the world has ever seen.” – Donald Trump

“If you’ve been watching CNN of late, you may see Harris as she wants you to see her: a former hard-nosed prosecutor who started out as a data-driven, do-your-homework, moderate Democrat. I laugh out loud. Tough? Prepared? Moderate? Um, no.” – Columnist Debra Saunders

“We are already seeing machines breaking down, armed people closing polls early, lines five hours long. All in Republican enclaves, of course. The Democrats have no shame. They  will cheat, and cheat gleefully. After all, they’ve been told they’re saving the world from Hitler.” – James Woods

“Just one week ago Trump went out on Rogan and predicted polls would come out just before the election designed to suppress MAGA voters. Trump was right again.” – Jack Posobiec

“Ignore the polls. Ignore the pundits. Ignore the betting markets. Ignore early voting numbers. Ignore those saying Kamala has seized momentum. Ignore those saying Trump has got this in the bag. Just vote.” – Charlie Kirk

LAUGHTER IS STILL THE BEST MEDICINE

Mr. Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, publisher of Nevada News & Views, and founder of CampaignDoctor.com.  You can sign up for his conservative, Nevada-focused e-newsletter at MuthsTruths.com.  His views are his own.

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