How often do Americans use firearms to defend themselves or others?
It sounds like a straightforward question. It isn’t.
Estimates of defensive gun use in the United States vary enormously depending on how researchers define a defensive use, whom they survey, what questions they ask and how the data are collected.
Economist and firearms researcher Dr. John R. Lott Jr. raised the issue again in a September 11 RealClearPolitics commentary titled “CDC Undercounts Defensive Gun Uses.” Lott argues that federal statistics and government summaries can substantially understate the frequency with which armed citizens defend themselves or others.
The underlying federal and academic material is publicly available, and it shows why the debate is so difficult to resolve.
In 2013, the Institute of Medicine and National Research Council of the National Academies published Priorities for Research to Reduce the Threat of Firearm-Related Violence. The report was prepared after the CDC and CDC Foundation asked the organizations to identify research priorities concerning firearm violence.
On defensive gun use, the report stated that national survey estimates ranged from approximately 500,000 to more than 3 million uses per year. It also discussed a much lower estimate of approximately 108,000 annually based on the National Crime Victimization Survey, while cautioning that this estimate was difficult to interpret because respondents had not been specifically asked about defensive gun use.
Elsewhere in the same report, the National Academies discussed estimates ranging from roughly 60,000 to 120,000 annually from the National Crime Victimization Survey and an estimate as high as 2.5 million from other research. The report made clear that disagreement over definitions, survey design and methodology produces dramatically different results.
The CDC’s current website summarizes that research by saying the National Academies report indicates a range of 60,000 to 2.5 million defensive gun uses each year. The CDC also acknowledges that estimates vary according to the questions asked, populations studied, time frame and other aspects of study design.
Lott’s criticism is that this summary does not fully convey the broader range of national survey estimates discussed in the National Academies report, particularly the approximately 500,000-to-more-than-3-million range.
That does not establish that Americans use firearms defensively 3 million times every year. Nor does it establish that the lowest estimates are correct.
What it establishes is that the precise number remains unresolved.
The history of the CDC webpage is also relevant. Numerical defensive-gun-use estimates were removed from the agency’s website in 2022 and restored in 2026. Reporting from The Trace, a publication that generally approaches gun policy from a gun-violence-prevention perspective, independently confirms both the removal and restoration.
Lott also points to defensive gun uses during public shootings.
A recent example occurred on August 1, 2026, outside an In-N-Out restaurant in Twin Falls, Idaho. Local reporting confirms that armed civilian Jordan Salinas and an off-duty Idaho State Trooper returned fire at the gunman. Police said their actions forced the shooter away from the crowded area and likely prevented additional casualties.
Lott writes that he has identified 15 such incidents since the beginning of 2025 in which police made similar statements about armed civilians potentially saving multiple lives. That figure should be understood as Lott’s own research finding, not as an FBI or CDC statistic.
Lott has firsthand experience with federal crime statistics. Department of Justice records identify him as having served as an adviser for research and statistics, and Lott says that part of his work involved examining FBI active-shooter reporting.
The FBI itself defines an active shooter as one or more individuals actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area. Its 2025 report, released July 30, 2026, identified 34 incidents for that year.
Lott and the Crime Prevention Research Center argue that FBI reports have missed or misclassified a significant number of incidents in which armed civilians stopped or disrupted active shooters. That is a contested research claim, not an official FBI finding, and should be identified as such.
There is a larger problem in measuring defensive gun use.
Many defensive incidents do not end with anyone being shot. A firearm may be displayed, drawn or otherwise used to deter an attacker without a shot being fired. Those incidents are inherently harder to track than shootings that generate police reports, hospital records or death certificates. The National Academies has repeatedly noted the methodological difficulty of measuring defensive gun use accurately.
The most defensible conclusion from the available evidence is therefore not that defensive gun use occurs precisely 60,000 times, 500,000 times, 2.5 million times or 3 million times per year.
It is that no one has established the precise number.
We do know that defensive gun use occurs. We know that different methodologies produce dramatically different estimates. And we know that a National Academies report prepared at the request of the CDC and CDC Foundation found that national survey estimates ranged from approximately 500,000 to more than 3 million defensive uses annually.
That evidence deserves to be included in any serious discussion of firearms and public safety.
Sources: John R. Lott Jr., “CDC Undercounts Defensive Gun Uses,” RealClearPolitics, September 11, 2026; Institute of Medicine and National Research Council, Priorities for Research to Reduce the Threat of Firearm-Related Violence, National Academies Press, 2013; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “About Firearm Injury and Death”; Federal Bureau of Investigation, Active Shooter Incidents in the United States in 2025.
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Nevada News & Views. Digital technology may have been used in the research, writing, or production of this article. Please verify information and consult additional sources as needed.
