A new working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas argues that the record surge in illegal immigration during the Biden years helped push home prices and rents higher across the country.
In city after city, housing costs exploded. This paper says illegal immigration had a real impact – with numbers attached.
Revisting this debate from February … turns out I was right. Putting millions of illegals in the housing pool drove up prices, according to the Federal Reserve. Supply and demand is still a thing, it turns out. https://t.co/GROnS3C4Dl pic.twitter.com/TtwbNlaRKK
— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) July 6, 2026
Inside the Study
They combined immigration court records with government data to figure out what happened between 2021 and 2024. The paper calls this stretch an “unprecedented boom” in illegal immigration.
Researchers zeroed in on the metro areas where illegal immigration rose fastest, then they tracked four things: jobs, wages, home prices, and rent.
The Results
Start simple. A 1% rise in illegal workers matched up with about a 1% rise in overall employment.
More workers, more jobs. Nobody's shocked by that.
Here's where it gets sticky. That same 1% rise in illegal workers lined up with a 2.2% jump in home prices. Rents rose about 1.4%.
And builders? They barely moved. The paper found little sign that new construction expanded fast enough to keep up with the added demand.
More people showed up. The number of houses stayed the same. You already know what happens next.
Across the average metro area studied, the paper says illegal immigration explains roughly 30% of employment growth, 30% of home price growth, and about 20% of rent growth between March 2021 and March 2024.
Take your last rent increase and cut it by a third. That's roughly how much of it had nothing to do with your landlord, your city, or the local market. It's on Washington.
This Isn't News to Nevada
Nevada has ranked among the tightest housing markets in the country for years now.
Home prices in Las Vegas and Reno climbed far faster than wages could keep up. Renters watched their monthly bills eat a bigger and bigger share of every paycheck.
Families here have lived it every time they signed a lease, or watched a house they liked sell for tens of thousands over asking.
This paper doesn't tell Nevadans anything they didn't already know. What it does is put numbers to it.
It takes a feeling millions of families have had for years and backs it up with data. It's confirmation.
The Twist in the Data
Not every arrow points in the same dark direction. Employment rose. Average weekly wages didn't take a significant hit, either.
On the surface, jobs went up, paychecks held, and housing costs climbed, all at once.
Dig one layer deeper, though, and the researchers also found that illegal immigration lowered labor income per person overall, a sign that the mix of jobs shifted toward lower paying work. And it sharply reduced government transfer payments in the areas studied.
So the labor market didn't stay untouched. It just didn't show up as a straightforward wage cut.
The Fine Print
This is a preliminary draft still circulating for feedback. It doesn't necessarily reflect the official position of the Dallas Fed or the Federal Reserve System.
These numbers describe an average metro area. Nobody's claiming illegal immigration caused every dollar of the housing run-up nationwide.
Some critics argue the 30% figure shows immigration's share of an increase that was already happening, not proof that immigration alone caused prices to spike that much.
All worth noting.
The Number Behind the Number
Citing Congressional Budget Office estimates, the paper's authors note that net illegal immigration added roughly 7 million people to the U.S. population before the pace slowed sharply in mid-2024.
Seven million people added to a country that already didn't have enough homes to go around.
Immigration remains one of the most divisive issues in American life. Republicans have long argued Biden-era border policies strained housing and public resources. Democrats have countered that immigration eased labor shortages and fueled economic growth.
This paper won't settle that fight. But next time someone asks why rent keeps climbing, Nevada families finally have an actual number to point to.
The only question left is whether Washington does anything about it.
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