(Elizabeth Crum) – Leaked to the press here and there last night and announced early this morning via CSPAN and PJTV, the Tea Party Express (TPE) has endorsed Sharron Angle, calling her a “a hero for conservatives and the tea party movement” and saying there is no candidate “who can match her record of principled conservatism.”
(Sidebar: Everyone who was having a cow at the rumor of a Chachas endorsement can now relax.)
Joe Wierzbicki, Coordinator for the TPE, said they will “invest the resources necessary for Sharron Angle to win the Republican primary.”
Yeah? I wonder if Joe & Co. understand what “necessary” means in this case?
If you believe a recent survey of GOP voters, Angle would pull in only 5% of the vote if the primary were held today. I don’t believe that number and based on what I know both of internal polling and what’s going on with Nevada’s grassroots, I’d guess Angle’s actual fraction is closer to between 10 and 15%.
Still, it’s gonna take some major TV time and some lucky breaks to earn her a win in June. The first of which will be costly and the second of which is up to the Fates.
Ralston says he sees a way:
I have always said in low turnout primary she has a chance — if only she can get money.
Remember Angle, boosted by outside spending by the Club for Growth, almost defeated (400 votes out of 100,000 cast in 5-way race) a much better funded Dean Heller for Congress four years ago. TPE is not CFG. But it may not have to be in this 12-way race.
If TPE gets on TV for Angle, it’s a new ballgame…
I’m not sure this is going to be a low turnout primary, though. All factions of the base are energized — some of them sporting smiles and their We-Can-Do-It tees while many are scowling and just downright PO’d over one thing or another — so I’m predicting one of the higher turnouts we’ve seen in awhile.
And Angle’s close race against Heller was a different ball game in many ways, so some comparisons may not hold.
But: that’s not to say Angle doesn’t have a shot at the nomination, though I think it’s a very slim one. Lowden’s lead and campaign coffers are substantial, and many in the GOP support her because they believe she is the only candidate with a real shot at defeating Harry Reid.
As for the subject of Angle in the general election…
Most (all?) media and political insiders — on both sides of the aisle — say there is just no way Angle can beat Reid. Even if she can somehow climb and conquer Primary Hill in the 54 days remaining, she’ll have Harry Reid’s $25 million war chest and a very skeptical electorate waiting for her on June 9th.
I’m just not sure there is enough money in the world to buy Angle her November 2nd dream.
To beat Reid, Angle would have to:
– convince moderate Republicans, independents and some conservative Democrats that her as-far-right-as-it-gets outlook on the state’s/nation’s issues is preferable to tolerating Reid for another term
– fend off the Reid-funded TV ads that will predict the fall of civilization if she is elected
– convince Nevada and national donors that she can beat Reid, if only she has the bank, such that they generously open their checkbooks
IF she could do all that and somehow, some way eke out a win, it would be The political story of the year — and by far the biggest Tea Party victory yet.
Is the vision of that improbable, incredible headline — “Angle Beats Reid!” — enough to get major money flowing in and give Angle better than her current snowball’s chance of taking down the most powerful man in the U.S. Senate? You may laugh at the suggestion that she could ever carve out such a scenario, but you can be sure the vision and the hope of that very thing will bring Tea Party money pouring in to her campaign should she survive the primary.
Harry Reid is so deeply, viscerally hated that I can envision one million “plus” Tea Partiers and conservatives from across the land donating $25 each to Angle in various online moneybomb fundraising events — the same kind that quickly raised many millions for Scott Brown in Massachusetts — which would at least even up the money game.
(Ms. Crum is editor of the Nevada News Bureau)