Senator Lindsey Graham may be headed for rough waters in 2026 if a new poll is any indication.
According to data shared this week by conservative commentator Ian Jaeger, 57% of South Carolina Republicans say they won’t support Graham in the GOP primary.
That’s a stunning number for a senator who’s held his seat since 2003—and a clear sign of growing frustration among the Republican base.
BREAKING: 57% of Republican voters in South Carolina will not vote for Lindsey Graham in the primary, according to a new poll.
Lindsey could be on his way out. pic.twitter.com/voJ58ehD8O
— Ian Jaeger (@IanJaeger29) May 28, 2025
Longtime Senator, New Problems
South Carolina is a Republican stronghold.
Trump carried the state by nearly 12 points in 2020. So, when GOP primary voters start turning on a sitting senator, it signals deeper dissatisfaction.
Graham has long been viewed as a hawk on foreign policy and a key player in Washington’s Republican establishment.
In recent years though, he’s drawn fire from grassroots conservatives who believe he’s more focused on global conflicts—especially Ukraine—than on problems here at home.
A November 2024 article from Responsible Statecraft highlighted one particularly controversial quote from Graham.
He suggested that Ukraine’s vast resources, including rare earth minerals valued at $2 to $7 trillion, could be a reason for U.S. involvement in the region.
To many conservatives, that sounded like someone treating war as a business opportunity, not a national security issue.
It didn’t sit well with voters already skeptical of endless foreign entanglements.
Party Realignment in Real Time
The Republican Party has been undergoing a shift since 2016.
The base has moved firmly toward an America First agenda, favoring candidates who focus on border security, economic sovereignty, and staying out of foreign wars.
That shift has put establishment figures like Graham in a tough spot.
Despite supporting many of Trump’s policies—and even earning his endorsement for re-election in March—Graham is still viewed by many as a “RINO” (Republican in Name Only) and a symbol of the old GOP.
In fact, Trump’s backing may have done more to confuse than convince.
Several MAGA-aligned voters on X voiced disappointment that Trump would support someone they see as disloyal.
Many brought up Graham’s 2016 warning that nominating Trump would “destroy” the party—an old quote that still stings in MAGA circles.
The reaction to Jaeger’s post paints a vivid picture of the frustration.
Many GOP voters feel left behind by politicians more concerned with international affairs than inflation, immigration, or government overreach.
Is Graham Really Vulnerable?
Graham has weathered political storms before.
In 2020, he faced a strong challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison.
While polls showed a close race, Graham ultimately won by 10 points.
But that was a general election. This time, the threat is coming from inside his own party.
Primary voters are often more ideological and more motivated than general election voters.
If a credible challenger steps forward—someone with name ID, funding, and Trump’s full support—Graham could be in for a fight.
So far, no clear challenger has emerged, but the 57% opposition in the poll means the door is wide open.
Bigger Than One Race
This isn’t just a South Carolina story—it’s part of a larger tug-of-war inside the Republican Party.
The base wants fresh leadership and candidates who will actually follow through on promises to reduce government, secure the border, and avoid unnecessary wars.
Republican voters are watching, and they’re not afraid to hold their own accountable. Politicians who take their base for granted may soon find themselves on the outside looking in.
This article was written with the assistance of AI. Please verify information and consult additional sources as needed.
