Nevada GOP Rep. Mark Amodei’s surprise retirement announcement last week has set off a frenzy of speculation on which Republicans will be running to fill his rock-solid 2nd Congressional District seat.
So far, Douglass County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian has reportedly told folks he’s sticking with his current race for attorney general – though I haven’t heard that from Tark himself.
In addition, former Nevada attorney general and U.S. Senate candidate Adam Laxalt – as well as former gubernatorial candidate Guyn Nohra and State Sen. Ira Hansen – have taken themselves out of the running
SIDENOTE: In my campaign training workshops, one of my pet peeves is the dreaded “I” letter. Those are communications that are all about the candidate, not the voter.
When teaching candidates about messaging, I tell them to print off a copy of their letter, voter contact mailer, press release, or fundraising appeal and circle in red every “I,” “me,” and “my” – and circle in blue every “you” and “your.”
By my count, Hansen’s announcement this morning that he wasn’t running had 58 red circles and 6 blue – and all but one of the blue ones showed up in the last paragraph!
Dear candidates: Elections are about the VOTERS, not you. Write about THEM. THEIR interests. THEIR concerns. What’s in it for THEM.
And there’s NO EXCUSE for this any longer – thanks to AI (artificial intelligence). Just pop your message into ChatGPT and ask it to rewrite with a focus on the VOTERS, not you. You’ll get back a new, more effective version in all of…5 seconds.
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming…
Nevada State Controller Andy Matthews, former two-time U.S. Senate candidate Sam Brown, and former gubernatorial candidate Joey Gilbert are said to be mulling runs.
As are former lieutenant governor and U.S. Senate candidate Tony Grady, former State Sen. James Settelmeyer, and maybe former Assemblyman Ken Gray.
Then, of course, are the third-tier wannabes and gadflies who will start coming out of the woodwork. For example, a press release issued yesterday declared:
“There is no candidate more qualified and fit for this congressional seat than Candidate Diane Sullivan, “NEVADA MOON.”
Who?
Exactly.
And with the above field in mind, here’s my early assessment:
Word on the street is that Sam Brown would be the odds-on favorite and would get Trump’s endorsement. Not sure that’s true, but I’m also not sure that would be enough anyway.
Sam ran two boring, lackluster campaigns for Senate and his messaging never got beyond his war injury story.
Trump’s endorsement wasn’t enough to carry him over the finish line in 2024 in a statewide race. And contrary to conventional wisdom, I think the POTUS seal of approval for Brown would be even less effective in CD2.
Why?
Because while GOP voters in CD2 love Amodei personally, there’s also always been an undercurrent of dissatisfaction with his sometimes less-than-conservative voting record in such an overwhelmingly Republican district.
Not enough to toss him overboard. But there’s a lot of pent-up desire for a more confrontational, tip-of-the-spear, philosophically conservative representative.
That’s not Sam. He’s more in line with the famous Groucho Marx quote: “Those are my principles, and if you don’t like them… well, I have others.”
Not a problem for Matthews. He’s about as philosophically conservative as they come. But there are two other problems:
#1: He’s from southern Nevada.
That doesn’t disqualify him legally. You don’t have to live in the district for congressional races. However…
While southern Nevadans rarely give northern or rural Nevadans a second thought, northern Nevadans have a great antipathy for southerners. Think Hatfields and McCoys. And they’re gonna want one of their own.
#2: He’s not a boat rocker.
Andy won his state Assembly seat in 2020 in a swing district. And he won statewide in a purple state. As such, he’s never been a fire-and-brimstone, MAGA-type candidate on the campaign trail.
And that’s what Republican CD2 primary voters are looking for – especially in light of the fact that Trump will only be in the White House another three years. GOP voters are starting to consider who will FIGHT for them like Trump when Trump leaves the stage.
So while the consensus among political “experts” has so far centered on Brown and Matthews as the front-runners, I’d put my money – though not the farm – on Joey Gilbert if he jumps into the race.
Unlike the other candidates mentioned above, Joey stirs EMOTION among his supporters. It was palpable in his gubernatorial run. And if he can replicate that enthusiams in a CD2 run, it could carry the day.
His supporters won’t just show up and vote for him on election day. They’ll be at rallies. They’ll be at lunches and dinners. They’ll volunteer. They’ll knock doors. They’ll give money. They’ll sleep in their “Joey Gilbert” t-shirts and drink from their “Joey Gilbert” coffee mugs.
You just can’t buy that kind of passion.
So those are my assessments this morning. And if you don’t like them… well, I’ll have others.
