(Dr. Robin Titus) – On May 1, the Nevada Economic Forum will deliver its revenue forecast, a critical step in shaping the 2025–2027 budget. This projection will define what Nevada can afford and where tough choices are needed.
As Senate minority leader, I advocate for a disciplined, conservative approach — one that protects essential services, prioritizes hardworking families, uses reserves wisely and ensures taxpayers aren’t subsidizing wealthy corporations while vital programs face risks.
Nevada’s fiscal outlook raises concerns.
Through March 2025, General Fund revenue is reportedly down $102.2 million year-to-date, a 3.08% decline from FY 2024, though further data is needed to confirm this trend.
Sales and use taxes, contributing nearly 30% of our revenue, are said to be underperforming, reflecting pressures on our consumption-driven economy.
The live entertainment tax (LET) has declined by $3.8 million year-to-date, a 5.8% drop from FY 2024, driven primarily by the absence of the 2024 Super Bowl at Allegiant Stadium — a one-time event that significantly boosted FY 2024 revenues.
The Economic Forum’s December 2024 forecast anticipated a steeper 19.3% decline in non-gaming LET revenues ($129.3 million to $104.3 million), so the current 5.8% shortfall suggests resilience in the entertainment sector.
However, a reported 7.5% passenger decline at Harry Reid International Airport in February 2025 — the sharpest since COVID — hints at potential tourism softness, pending confirmation, which could further impact LET collections.
The modified business tax (MBT), tied to wage growth, is also underperforming. Year-to-date, MBT grew by only 1.9%, well below the Economic Forum’s 4.0% forecast, yielding a $7.9 million increase instead of the expected $16.4 million — a $8.5 million shortfall.
This gap suggests slower wage growth, potentially signaling broader economic challenges that require close monitoring.
The Technical Advisory Committee’s April 2025 update offers mixed signals.
FY25 projections were reportedly revised upward by $8.1 million, partly due to a $10.5 million Resorts World fine, but FY26 and FY27 estimates were cut by $15.9 million and $16.2 million, respectively.
These unverified figures suggest near-term stability but long-term caution. The December 2024 forecast, possibly totaling $12.4 billion for 2025–2027, may face a rare mid-session adjustment if trends worsen, a scenario not seen since the Great Recession.
Despite these challenges, Nevada has strengths.
With the state Treasurer’s management, interest income has increased by 8.1%, providing a modest buffer. The Rainy Day Fund, now at $1.3 billion after being rebuilt from near depletion during the pandemic, offers a significant $100 million increase over prior estimates, serving as a vital backstop that must be used sparingly.
Medicaid and CHIP, covering 808,992 Nevadans in February 2025 — roughly one in four residents — strain resources following Affordable Care Act expansions. With potential federal funding cuts looming, large employers benefiting from state tax incentives reportedly have employees relying on Medicaid, shifting costs to taxpayers.
The Technical Advisory Committee notes $195 million in transferable tax credits impacting the Insurance Premium Tax by FY 2027, raising questions about balancing corporate benefits with public needs. A federal funding shortfall could necessitate a special legislative session, underscoring the need for fiscal restraint.
Yet, some legislative Democrats propose new tax credits, such as for the film industry, and maintain legislation with significant fiscal impacts, even while voicing concerns about Medicaid cuts.
This inconsistency is unsustainable. Nevada cannot afford to prioritize corporate subsidies over essential services like health care. If the May 1 forecast confirms a shortfall, data-driven decisions — not political agendas — must guide our response.
I’ve long cautioned against relying on temporary federal funds, like those from the American Rescue Plan Act, which propped up programs without sustainable funding.
In 2023, we highlighted this fiscal cliff risk — a reality we now confront.
As minority leader, I’m committed to bipartisan collaboration without sacrificing principle. The Senate Republican Caucus will oppose reckless spending and champion policies that make Nevada the best place to live, work and raise a family — not a haven for corporate giveaways.
Nevada has overcome crises before, from the Great Recession to COVID-19, emerging stronger through resilience and leadership. With clear priorities, fiscal responsibility, and bold action, we can do so again. The May 1 forecast is our chance to get it right.
Dr. Robin Titus is the Senate minority leader in the Nevada Legislature. The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Nevada News & Views.
