Las Vegas Rules the Polls: How Clark and Washoe Counties Dominate
Imagine if Las Vegas ran our entire state’s elections – that’s pretty much what’s happening in Nevada.
A new analysis by election forecaster Seth Keshel shows how just two counties, Clark and Washoe, controlled nearly 90% of Nevada’s 2024 presidential vote count, raising serious questions about election integrity in the Silver State.
“Don’t Get Killed in Clark County”: The Math for Republicans
Keshel writes:
“Nevada is a simple math equation for Republicans. Don’t get killed in Clark County and you should win the state.”
Clark County, home to Las Vegas, cast about 70% of all ballots in 2024, while Washoe County (Reno) added another 18%. Together, these urban centers dominate Nevada’s political landscape.
Trump Gains Ground, But Rules Favor Democrats
The numbers tell an interesting story.
Trump managed to improve his performance in 14 of Nevada’s 17 counties compared to 2020. In Clark County alone, he gained over 63,000 votes, showing growing support among working-class voters, particularly in Hispanic and Asian communities.
Yet, Nevada’s election rules make winning an uphill battle for any candidate. The state has what Keshel calls a “Wild West” approach to elections.
There’s no voter ID requirement. Anyone can register to vote on Election Day. Ballot harvesting (where people can collect and return other voters’ ballots) is completely legal. Plus, every (active) registered voter automatically gets a mail-in ballot, whether they asked for one or not.
Mail-In Ballots: The Game-Changer in Close Races
These rules have real consequences.
Take the recent Senate race between Democrat incumbent Jacky Rosen and GOP nominee Sam Brown. Even though Trump won the state, Brown lost his race after mail-in ballots kept being counted for days after Election Day.
The Nevada Supreme Court’s decision to allow ballots without postmarks to be counted up to three days later underscores the challenges conservatives face.
Keshel argues:
“Mail takes several days to get where it is going. Printing a ballot off, filling it out, and dunking it into a drop box takes minutes.”
Ballot Numbers Raise Eyebrows
Since 2004, Nevada’s presidential ballot count has grown dramatically.
The biggest jump came in 2020, with nearly 280,000 new ballots compared to 2016 – a 25% increase that far outpaced population growth. Even in 2024, Keshel estimates the total count remains about 80,000 ballots higher than expected based on historical trends.
Opportunities and Challenges for Conservatives
The good news for conservatives is growing support among minority voters and momentum in voter registration.
The gap between registered Democrats and Republicans has shrunk dramatically – where Democrats once held a comfortable lead of nearly 5% in registered voters back in 2020, that advantage has now dropped to less than 1%.
However, without changes to election rules, winning remains tough. Keshel gives Nevada his worst grade – “4 – Highest Concern” – for election integrity, making it one of just five states with this severe rating.
Priorities for Election Integrity Reforms
The report identifies the top five counties needing election integrity reforms: Clark, Washoe, Nye, Douglas, and Carson City. It suggests several priorities for conservative activists:
- Push for voter ID requirements
- Challenge universal mail-in voting in court
- Clean up voter registration rolls
- End same-day registration
- Restrict ballot harvesting
- End automatic voter registration, which Keshel says leads to duplicate registrations
The Stakes Are High
Nevada’s election system saw a major development in 2024 when voters overwhelmingly approved Question 7, a constitutional amendment requiring voter identification for both in-person and mail-in voting. This measure passed with approximately 73% support, reflecting strong voter demand for enhanced election integrity.
However, the amendment must be approved again in 2026 to become part of the state constitution, leaving current voting procedures unchanged for now.
As Nevada grows, its election system will only become more important. Whether these changes happen depends on voter awareness and pressure on state lawmakers.
For now, Nevada’s election system remains as unpredictable as a spin of the roulette wheel – and conservatives say that’s no way to run a representative democracy.
This article was written with the assistance of AI. Please verify information and consult additional sources as needed.
