Joe Lombardo’s re-election fight could preview the Republican Party’s path to 2028
The national press is watching Nevada. On Thursday, Politico — one of Washington’s most widely read political outlets — published a long piece on Governor Joe Lombardo’s re-election race. The headline called Nevada “the new Ohio.”
For decades, Ohio was the ultimate bellwether. As Ohio went, so went the nation. Now, pundits are saying Nevada has taken that crown. What happens here in 2026 may shape the Republican Party’s path all the way to 2028.
What Politico Is Saying
The Politico story painted a tough picture. Lombardo started the year in a strong position — a big fundraising lead and solid favorability numbers. But the race has tightened. The data from three polls show Lombardo is leading, but narrowly and within the margin of error.
The story points to gas prices as a key drag. Nevada gas prices have climbed from $3.50 to $5 a gallon, among the highest in the nation. Las Vegas tourism has taken a hit, too. Las Vegas saw 7.5 percent fewer guests last year — the worst non-pandemic decline since the city started tracking in 1970.
Democrats are trying to hang all of that around the governor’s neck. Nevada State Democratic Party Chair Daniele Monroe-Moreno claims Lombardo:
“said that Trump was doing a fantastic job as the war with Iran has skyrocketed our gas prices.”
The Gas Price Story Is More Complicated
Here’s what that talking point leaves out: Nevada gets roughly 86 to 90 percent of its fuel piped in from California.
Two major California refineries — Phillips 66 in Los Angeles and Valero in the Bay Area — closed in the past six months alone. Together, they accounted for roughly 20 percent of California’s refining capacity.
California’s own in-state crude production has dropped more than 50 percent since 2000 — not because the oil ran out, but because regulations made it too expensive to produce. Those are Sacramento’s policy failures showing up at Nevada pump prices.
Lombardo knows this, and he’s doing something about it. He created the Nevada Fuel Resiliency Committee earlier this year — the first effort by any Nevada governor to break the state’s dependence on California fuel.
The committee is already working to diversify supply routes and strengthen pipeline infrastructure. That’s not the move of a governor who caused the problem. That’s the move of a governor trying to fix one he inherited.
Why This Matters to Conservatives
Let’s be honest. This race is about more than Nevada. It’s a test of whether a Republican governor can win a purple state when the national environment is rough. If Lombardo holds on, it proves the limited-government, law-and-order, pro-economy conservative brand can stand on its own two feet.
If he loses, Democrats will use it as a club against every Republican running in 2028.
Lombardo has governed as a conservative who actually gets things done. He’s vetoed bad legislation, worked to diversify the state economy, and kept his lines open to Washington without being a rubber stamp. He personally met with President Trump to save solar energy projects that would have killed roughly 7,200 Nevada jobs. That’s a governor who fights for his state.
Republican strategist Mike Madrid put it plainly:
“Nevada is the perfect petri dish; it’s the perfect focus group that’s going to be a gauge.”
What the Numbers Show
The polls confirm this is going to be a fight. An Emerson College poll found Lombardo and Ford tied at 41 percent each, with 18 percent undecided. That’s a lot of voters who haven’t made up their minds yet.
There’s a silver lining in those numbers. Lombardo holds a 66 percent approval rating among Republicans — his base is solid. He also leads among independents by eight points, though 40 percent of those independents remain undecided. That’s the ballgame right there. Whoever wins the undecided independent vote likely wins the race.
A separate Noble Predictive Insights survey found that among all voters, Lombardo holds a 49 percent favorable rating, compared to 38 percent unfavorable. People generally like him. The question is whether economic frustration overrides that goodwill.
What Lombardo Is Saying
The governor isn’t hiding. He sat down with Politico and made his case directly. Lombardo told the outlet:
“Not hiding in the basement. I think that’s the key component — to let people know exactly what you’ve done.”
He points to real results.
The state added more than 34,000 jobs over the last year, and general fund revenue is up 8 percent. He’s also working to move Nevada beyond its reliance on gambling and tourism, pointing to a growing tech corridor in Northern Nevada and new manufacturing facilities.
What Conservatives Should Do
Conservatives across Nevada should engage now — not in October. More broadly, conservatives should push back on the Democratic narrative that every local problem is a Trump problem.
Lombardo has earned another term. The conservative movement in Nevada should make sure he gets it.
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Nevada News & Views. This article was written with the assistance of AI. Please verify information and consult additional sources as needed.
