Democrats Eye Down-Ballot Gains Even If Lombardo Wins
Nevada Republicans have one big thing working in their favor heading into 2026. His name is Joe Lombardo.
According to political analyst Jeff Carter, the governor remains the strongest Republican candidate in the state by a wide margin.
The question is whether his personal popularity can overcome what Carter sees as a difficult national environment for Republicans.
The answer? Nobody really knows.
Carter rates the governor's race between Gov. Joe Lombardo and Attorney General Aaron Ford as a true toss-up.
He gives Lombardo a slight edge, estimating the race at roughly 50-52% for the Republican incumbent and 48-50% for Ford.
In other words, a coin flip.
Lombardo's Biggest Advantage
Carter's analysis starts with a simple fact. Lombardo has already done something other Nevada Republicans haven’t done in recent years:
He won statewide while running ahead of the Republican ticket.
In 2022, Lombardo outperformed every major Republican candidate on the ballot.
He ran ahead of Adam Laxalt in the U.S. Senate race, ahead of Jim Marchant for secretary of state, and ahead of Michele Fiore for treasurer.
That matters because Nevada voters have shown they're willing to split their tickets.
According to Carter, Lombardo's personal brand is the ceiling for Republican performance in Nevada.
If Republicans are going to win statewide in a difficult political environment, he's the candidate most likely to do it.
But Carter also argues that 2026 isn't shaping up like 2022. He believes national trends currently favor Democrats.
Concerns about inflation, foreign policy, tariffs, and Washington politics could make life harder for Republican candidates, even in a battleground state like Nevada.
Ford's challenge, Carter says, isn't convincing voters that Lombardo is a bad governor. It's convincing voters that Lombardo isn't different enough from the national Republican brand.
Whether that argument works could decide the election.
The Race Few People Are Watching
While most attention will focus on the governor's race, Carter believes another contest could have major consequences: The race for lieutenant governor.
Republican Lt. Gov. Stavros Anthony won his 2022 race by 3.8 percentage points. But Carter argues that margin could disappear if Democrats continue benefiting from a favorable national environment.
He gives Democratic Assemblywoman Sandra Jauregui a 55-60% chance of victory compared to Anthony's 40-45%.
Carter points to Jauregui's legislative experience, endorsements, and statewide profile as strengths. But the biggest factor may have nothing to do with either candidate.
Carter notes that many political insiders expect Lombardo to consider a 2028 Senate challenge against U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, although Lombardo has made no such announcement.
If Lombardo won reelection in 2026 and later won a Senate race, the lieutenant governor would become governor.
That possibility gives Democrats a powerful incentive to invest heavily in the lieutenant governor's race now.
In Carter's view, it turns what is normally a sleepy down-ballot contest into a strategic fight over who could control the governor's office in 2028.
Treasurer Race Shows Why Primaries Matter
Carter also analyzed the race for state treasurer.
It's worth noting that Carter was himself a Republican candidate for treasurer and lost the GOP primary to Drew Johnson.
Even so, Carter rates the general election as Lean Democratic.
He estimates Democratic nominee Tya Mathis-Coleman has roughly a 65-70% chance of defeating Johnson.
Carter argues that Mathis-Coleman benefits from several factors, including Nevada's recent voting trends, Democratic strength in lower-profile statewide races, and what he views as a favorable national environment for Democrats.
He also contends that many voters know little about treasurer candidates and simply vote along party lines.
One of Carter's more controversial conclusions is that Republicans nominated a weaker general election candidate than they could have.
He argues that his own finance background, local roots, endorsements, and campaign infrastructure would have made the race more competitive.
Even so, Carter acknowledges that broader political trends may matter more than candidate quality if Democrats continue to enjoy a strong national advantage.
Secretary of State Looks Like Democrats' Strongest Race
Of the statewide races Carter examined, the secretary of state's contest appears to be the least competitive.
He gives Democratic Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar a 70-75% chance of reelection against Republican challenger Jim Marchant.
Marchant lost to Aguilar in 2022, and Carter argues the political environment is less favorable for Republicans today than it was four years ago.
Carter is especially critical of Marchant's candidacy.
He argues that Marchant's election fraud claims and efforts to challenge the 2020 election make him a difficult statewide candidate among independents and swing voters.
One detail Carter highlights is that Lombardo endorsed Marchant's primary opponent this year, suggesting many establishment Republicans viewed Marchant as a difficult general-election candidate.
What the Big Picture Looks Like
Looking across all four statewide races, Carter sees a clear pattern.
Lombardo remains the strongest Republican on the ballot.
Anthony's fate may depend largely on Lombardo's coattails.
Johnson faces an uphill battle in the treasurer's race.
And Aguilar enters the secretary of state's race as a clear favorite.
In fact, Carter's most likely scenario isn't a Republican sweep or a Democratic sweep. It's a split decision.
He believes the most likely outcome is that Lombardo narrowly wins reelection while Democrats hold or capture the other statewide offices.
That would look a lot like Nevada's 2022 results, when voters elected a Republican governor while choosing Democrats for several other key statewide positions.
Five months is a long time in politics.
Campaigns haven't fully engaged. Millions of dollars haven't been spent. Voters aren't paying close attention yet.
But if Carter is right, Nevada Republicans may once again find themselves relying on one candidate to outrun the rest of the ticket.
And if that candidate is Joe Lombardo, history suggests he just might.
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Nevada News & Views. Digital technology was used in the research, writing, and production of this article. Please verify information and consult additional sources as needed.
