Lombardo Leads by Two as Nevada Republicans Face Trouble Down the Ballot.
Joe Lombardo is ahead. The rest of Nevada’s Republican ticket has considerably less to celebrate.
A new Noble Predictive Insights poll puts the Republican governor at 42% to Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford’s 40% among likely voters. Independent Danielle Ford draws 7%, with another 9% undecided.
That two-point edge falls within the pollster’s reported margin of error. Democrats lead every other statewide contest tested:
- Lieutenant governor: Sandra Jauregui leads Stavros Anthony, 41–38
- Secretary of state: Cisco Aguilar leads Jim Marchant, 44–37
- Treasurer: Tya Mathis-Coleman leads Drew Johnson, 40–39
- Controller: Michael MacDougall leads Andy Matthews, 42–37
- Attorney general: Nicole Cannizzaro leads Adriana Guzmán Fralick, 45–37
NEVADA POLL By Noble Predictive Insights
Governor
🟥 Joe Lombardo (i): 42%
🟦 Aaron Ford: 40%
🟨 Danielle Ford: 7%
——
AG: 🔵 Cannizzaro +8
SOS: 🔵 Aguilar +7
LG: 🔵 Jauregui +3
Treas: 🔵 Mathis-Coleman +1
Cont: 🔵 MacDougal +59/22–26 | 708 LV | MoE ±3.7
https://t.co/48QVEu4Ewa https://t.co/WjQgDNLQME— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 6, 2026
The survey, conducted September 22–26 through an opt-in online panel, included 800 registered voters and 708 likely voters. Noble reports margins of error of plus or minus 3.46 points and 3.68 points, respectively.
The governor’s race remains competitive. But the accompanying crosstabs show why Lombardo’s narrow advantage offers limited reassurance to other Republicans.
Lombardo’s Coalition Is Not Transferring Down the Ballot
Among independent and third-party likely voters, Lombardo and Aaron Ford are tied at 32%.
Every other Republican tested trails among those voters. Democratic advantages range from four points in the lieutenant governor’s race to 12 points in the attorney general’s contest.
There is also a difference in how effectively candidates consolidate their parties.
Lombardo draws 82% of Republican likely voters. Other Republican candidates receive between 76% and 80%. Cannizzaro, meanwhile, draws 88% of Democrats, compared with Fralick’s 77% among Republicans.
Older voters provide another source of Lombardo’s advantage. He leads Aaron Ford among voters 65 and older, 58–33. Other Republican candidates receive only 43% to 47% of that age group.
Lombardo has assembled support that his fellow Republicans have yet to match.
That does not mean the down-ballot races are settled. Between 30% and 38% of independents remain undecided in those contests. There is considerable room for campaigns to move voters.
Marchant’s Washoe Deficit Has More Than Doubled
Washoe County provides a particularly stark comparison.
According to Washoe’s official 2022 election results, Jim Marchant received 44% against Cisco Aguilar’s 51.4%, losing the county by 7.3 points.
Noble now has Marchant trailing the same opponent by 18 points among likely voters in Washoe, 49–31.
His support is 13 points below his final 2022 share, and his deficit has more than doubled.
For perspective, Sigal Chattah lost Washoe to Aaron Ford by 14.7 points in 2022. Marchant’s current polling deficit is larger than that loss.
Aguilar is now running as an incumbent, and a poll with undecided voters is different from a completed election. The Washoe subgroup also contains only 135 weighted likely voters, making its precise margins less dependable than the statewide findings.
Still, the comparison is a warning sign for a Republican facing a rematch.
Lombardo has his own difficulty in Washoe. Aaron Ford leads him there, 42–34, even as Lombardo leads statewide.
Trump Remains Deeply Unpopular
The poll also reinforces the picture of an unpopular president.
Among registered Nevada voters, Donald Trump’s overall job approval is 37%, with 62% disapproving. That puts him underwater by 25 points—closely tracking the 24-point deficit in Civiqs’ Nevada approval tracking.
His standing improves among likely voters, but remains negative: 42% approve, and 58% disapprove, a 16-point deficit.
One distinction in Noble’s release deserves attention. It describes Trump’s national job performance using a 38% approval, 61% disapproval result. In the accompanying workbook, those figures belong to his economic approval among likely voters, rather than overall job approval.
The accurate comparison still gives Republicans little comfort.
Among likely voters, Lombardo’s overall approval is 49–44, while Trump’s is 42–58. On the economy, Lombardo receives 45% approval and 47% disapproval; Trump receives 38% and 61%.
Voters are giving the governor considerably more room than the president. Lombardo holds a 21-point net approval advantage over Trump, both overall and on the economy.
In Washoe, Trump’s overall approval among likely voters is 38–62. His economic approval is 36–64.
Those findings do not prove a Trump endorsement hurts every Republican candidate. They do show why an endorsement cannot substitute for persuading voters who are dissatisfied with the president.
The Question 6 Warning Is Inside the GOP
Perhaps the clearest disconnect between Republican messaging and voter opinion is Question 6.
Noble finds 69% of likely voters supporting the abortion amendment, with 22% opposed.
Support reaches 77% in Washoe, 67% in Clark and 65% in rural counties.
Republicans themselves favor the measure, 52–38. Among voters who recall backing Trump in 2024, support is 50%, compared with 40% opposition.
That complicates any strategy built around treating opposition to Question 6 as a position that naturally unites Republican voters.
As NN&V previously explained, the debate concerns what the constitutional amendment changes beyond Nevada’s existing abortion protections.
Opponents need to make that distinction persuasive. Simply identifying the measure with Democrats does little to address Republican voters who support it.
The survey described a fundamental right to abortion, limits on state interference before fetal viability, and protections when necessary for the pregnant individual’s life or health at any point during pregnancy. Its results measure reactions to that wording, rather than every argument offered by either campaign.
Read our prior coverage:
Nevada’s Abortion Law Isn’t Going Anywhere, So What Does Question 6 Actually Change?
But the breadth of support is difficult to dismiss.
Rural voters favor the measure by 42 points. Republican likely voters favor it by 14. Washoe favors it by 60.
There is room to debate the constitutional language and its safety implications. But opponents who assume their party’s voters are already with them are starting from a premise this poll contradicts.
Voters Are Making Their Own Combinations
Question 7, the voter identification amendment, also enjoys broad support: 67% yes to 25% no.
Independents support both Question 6 and Question 7 at 67%.
The workbook does not establish how many individual voters support both measures. It does show that the same broad electorate is receptive to two proposals associated with different parties.
A voter can support a Republican governor, an abortion amendment, and voter identification. Campaigns need to understand those combinations rather than expect every issue preference to follow a party script.
Lombardo’s public safety advantage illustrates the same point. Independents trust him over Aaron Ford on crime, 42–19. Yet their preference for governor is tied.
Winning an argument on one issue does not automatically win the vote.
For Nevada Republicans, that is the challenge running through this poll. Lombardo’s personal advantage is not carrying the ticket. Trump remains unpopular. And opposition to Question 6 does not speak for a majority of Republican likely voters.
The voters are telling Republicans where persuasion is needed. The question is whether the campaigns are listening.
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Nevada News & Views. This article was written with the assistance of AI.
