Democrats hoping for a smooth ride into Nevada’s 2026 governor’s race just hit a speed bump. A big one.
A new poll commissioned by Washoe County Commission Chair Alexis Hill shows she’s still trailing Attorney General Aaron Ford in the Democratic primary. But the numbers also reveal something more important.
Hill doesn’t have to win right now to cause real damage.
She just has to make Ford fight.
A Primary That Isn’t Over Quickly
According to the Change Research poll of 555 Democratic primary voters conducted December 11 to 18, Ford starts with a big lead.
Forty-eight percent backed him at first, compared to just 13 percent for Hill. But once voters read positive statements about both candidates, Hill’s support doubled to 26 percent.
Ford barely moved. He stayed at 47 percent.
That’s the problem.
Hill’s own pollster called Ford a “weak frontrunner,” arguing that Hill has room to grow while Ford may already be near his ceiling. Whether that’s spin or not, the math matters.
Ford can’t coast anymore.
Every dollar he spends knocking down Hill in the primary is a dollar he can’t spend against Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo in the general election.
Why This Helps Lombardo
Incumbents love messy primaries on the other side. Lombardo gets to sit back, raise money, and define the general election while Democrats argue with each other.
Ford does not have that luxury.
Recent (questionable) public polling has shown Lombardo either tied with Ford or holding a small lead. That’s before Ford has spent serious money on a primary challenger.
Hill forces Ford to defend his record. She forces him to advertise early.
And she forces him to spend resources talking to Democratic voters instead of reaching the middle of the electorate where general elections are won.
That’s a strategic win for Lombardo no matter who comes out of the primary.
Ford’s Weak Spots in a Democratic Primary
Hill’s campaign is built around dissatisfaction.
The poll shows two-thirds of Democratic voters feel frustrated or angry with Nevada’s government. Nearly nine in ten say they want a governor who will “topple the status quo” instead of working within the system.
Ford is the system. He’s as “establishment” as it gets.
He’s wrapping up his second term as attorney general. He’s a former state Senate majority leader. He’s endorsed by Democrats in Congress and most of the Legislature.
That résumé helps in a general election. In a Democrat primary, it makes him a target.
Hill is openly running against establishment Democrats. She’s calling for higher taxes on corporate-owned properties, temporary rent caps, and ending opt-out options for union dues.
She’s even said billionaires should be scared of her campaign.
Ford has to explain why he hasn’t delivered that kind of sweeping change already. That’s not an easy argument with a frustrated base.
Hill’s Own General Election Problem
Hill’s message may excite primary voters, but it’s a tougher sell statewide.
Polling of general election voters has typically not included Hill at all, while Lombardo and Ford are already competitive matchups.
Hill’s platform includes tax hikes, more regulation, and aggressive government intervention in housing and labor markets.
Those ideas play well in a Democratic primary. They don’t play as well with independents, small business owners, or rural Nevada voters.
Lombardo will gladly run against either Democrat. But Hill’s positions give him clearer contrasts on taxes, jobs, and government overreach.
The Takeaway
Democrats are headed for an expensive internal fight. Hill may be the underdog, but she’s strong enough to force Ford to spend money early and often.
That’s time and cash Ford won’t get back.
And while Democrats sort it out, Lombardo keeps his war chest intact and his focus where it belongs. On winning in November.
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Nevada News & Views. Digital technology was used in the research, writing, and production of this article. Please verify information and consult additional sources as needed.
