(Stanley Paher) – As a battle-tested, wellfunded veteran Congressman in each of three general elections against significant D opposition in NV3, Heck will get a splendid vote in his present environs with significant support from moderate D’s and the nonpartisan voters which, not incidentally, are numerous throughout CD3. He is known and respected, and has represented his district well. Of course, in hopeless CD1, the only good thing in the US Senate race for the R is that voter participation percentage-wise is lower there than in the other three Nevada CD’s. In CD4, (Clark portion) not too much better than CD1.
The smaller fund of voters in the rurals will likely express themselves in 2016 about like they did for Adam Laxalt in last year’s general election — majorities in the 70%-80% range (except for Carson City, somewhat less). This will come true if Heck continually ties Masto to Reid in those areas and can somehow commit Masto to approving ObamaCare if she had been a U.S. Senator in 2009.
So it may come down to Washoe.
In 1998, John Ensign spent considerable time in Washoe and in the squeaker against H. Reid. John actually pulled even with Harry in Washoe, though never having ever been on the ballot there in any race. The vote accorded a Libertarian on the ballot that year was several thousand more than the 400 votes difference between Ensign and Reid. Then in 2000 when Ensign ran again for the Senate, he won handily, even in Clark and Washoe.
Dr. John E. and Dr. Joe H. have strode similar paths. In 1994, John defeated an incumbent D (Jim Bilbray) for Congress by only 1% in a district wholly within Clark and won again handily in 1996. Heck won in his initial bid for Congress in 2010 in a district wholly within Clark defeating incumbent Dina Titus by 1% and won reelection handily the next year (and the next, of course).
Heck’s splendid congressional voting record has addressed national issues and concerns, while CCM’s statements have reflected Nevada-related issues. I wonder if Brian Krolicki can get involved? Remember how Masto bottled him up with false charges for months in 2010 to counter a run against H. Reid that year.
On voting registration, Washoe presently has almost 7,000 more voters than D, up more than that since 2008. This is a good sign. But the big story is that both in Clark and Washoe, the registration of Nonpartisan voters has soared more than 10% just in the last year. This is part of a national trend. Let’s have some debates and show that Masto is wooden, untested, and provincial as to issues.
The H. Reid Democratic machine, very apparent in 2008 and 2012, was AWOL last year. Nevertheless, it is still a force. But is its enthusiasm automatically transferable to a relatively untested Masto who by 2016 would not have faced voters for 8 years, having retired 4 years earlier? (Her R opponents each time have been sacrificial lambs.) There have been lots of new Nevadan voter registrations since 2010. In 2016, H. Reid can’t just flip a switch and tell D learning people to go vote for Masto.
Of course, the Hispanic vote will weigh in heavily for Masto, perhaps with more than 70% in many localities. Heck cannot give up much more than that, if he were to win. Heck also cannot afford to lose Clark overall by more than 8%; otherwise, he will not prevail.
Ceteris paribus, if Masto would win next year because she is female and Hispanic — if that would put her over the top— then the Nevada electorate is a very sorry lot of 1.2 million voters indeed. We had the gimmick candidacy for president in 2008 — first African American. Now Clinton is running as if being the first female President is paramount. What about the issues? Stating them simply and plainly and one issue per TV adv. to the Nevada electorate is traditionally the pathway to win elections.
Heck will work hard and should win by slightly less than 2%. He is an excellent debater, and his ratatattat responses to question from, say people like Reno newscaster Sam Shad, will send Masto to seek cover. This is in spite of the fact that 2016 in Nevada will generally be a Democratic year. It’s not unusual in Nevada for one party to dominate while a significant office goes against the tide and votes the other way.
Thus, CD3 to be retained by the R. CD3 demographically is slowly trending toward the R, despite a small D voter registration advantage which as of August is a mere 1,200. Now it is dead even as of February 2016. Joe Heck is greatly responsible for making this district leaning R.