Currently, Democrats have a 27-15 majority in the Nevada State Assembly. Which means Republicans need to pick up six seats to get to a 21-21 tie, and seven to take the majority outright.
I ran into former Clark County GOP chief David Gibbs last weekend. And I think he and I might be the only GOP leaders in Nevada who recognize that Assembly Republicans are absolutely in a position to win the majority in November.
First, the GOP will need to hold its two vulnerable Assembly seats in District 2 and District 35.
Drew Teitelbaum is running to replace GOP incumbent Heidi Kasama in the GOP friendly District 2, and Rebecca Edgeworth is the GOP incumbent running for swing District 35.
Both should hold these seats. So now let’s look at the flippables.
TIER 1
Assembly District 9: Republican Erica Neely vs. Democrat recovering black tar heroin addict Ryan Hampton.
Assembly District 41: Republican Kelly Chapman vs. Democrat-Socialist Vinny “Mini-Mamdani” Spotleson.
Assembly District 37: Republican Jill Douglass vs. Democrat incumbent Shea Backus.
All three of these GOP candidates ran strong campaigns in 2024. Neely and Chapman ran against incumbents last time but are now running for open seats in swing districts.
Douglass ran a very strong race against the incumbent Senate Majority Leader in 2024 and is now running against a back-bencher in a smaller Assembly district that has flipped in four of the last six cycles.
Sweep all three, and Republicans are up to 18.
TIER 2
Assembly District 5: Democrat incumbent Brittany Miller vs. Republican Kelly Quinn.
Assembly District 12: Democrat incumbent Max Carter vs. Republican challenger Nan Roecker.
Assembly District 34: Democrat incumbent Hanadi Nadeem vs. Republican Brandon Davis.
Again, all three GOP candidates ran strong – maybe even surprising to some – campaigns in 2024.
The districts are a little tougher than the Tier 1 races, but the expected low turnout for a midterm election is a golden opportunity … IF … they put the right strategic campaign plans together.
Sweep these with the Tier 1 races and Republicans have a 21-21 tie.
TIER 3
Assembly District 21: Democrat incumbent Elaine Marzola vs. Republican challenger Patsy Carvalho.
Assembly District 29: Republican Joe Ludwig vs. Democrat Alex Pereszlenyi in an “open” race for a swing district.
Pick up one of these with the other six and Republicans would have the outright majority.
Tough? Yes. Impossible? No.
But here’s the problem…
What passes for “leadership” in the Assembly Republican Caucus has zero political talent, instincts, or vision. They couldn’t win a rigged carnival game.
The Tier 2 races have experienced candidates but are going to need some outside help to pull off upsets.
The Tier 3 candidates have no experience as candidates and no solid campaign management that I’ve seen. Only solid independent expenditures can rescue them.
So…
If Republican donors who are tired of losing winnable races are serious about flipping the State Assembly from blue to red, they need to get serious about doing some serious independent expenditures in these Tier 2 and Tier 3 races.
If the candidates themselves get their campaigns close, IE’s could put them over the top.
Those who say a thing cannot be done should get out of the way of those who are ready, willing, and able to do it.
Any donors interested in a Republican Majority Project independent expenditure campaign separate from the current GOP establishment – which, in a self-fulfilling prophesy, doesn’t believe this is possible – should get in touch with Mr. Gibbs or me.
We can show you exactly how to do it.
And it won’t be done by running the same ol’ cookie-cutter, paint-by-numbers losing campaigns most political consultants in Nevada continue to run.
As Newt Gingrich was fond of saying, real change requires real change.
The good news: Even if Republicans don’t pull a rabbit from the hat and win the majority in 2026, the table will be set to come back again in 2028 and 2030 before the next census and the next redistricting takes place in 2031.
Go big or go home. Step up or step aside. We have a state to save!
P.S. Hapless and clueless Assembly Minority Leader Greg Hafen needs to not only be replaced as “leader” after the November elections but needs to be ousted from the Assembly altogether.
His strong GOP District 36 – which actually elected a “dead pimp” in 2018 – needs and deserves a rock-solid conservative who’s a fighter, not a wallflower.
And with that in mind, I think this seat would be a GREAT place to start the Michele Fiore comeback trail in 2028.
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