NN&V Exclusive
(Lori Piotrowski) – The GOP is on a roll, according to the math. Numbers are coming in from different sources are saying the same thing—this election has got voters’ attention, and they’re leaning right.
Both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary reported a record number of participants, and many of these people were first-time Republican voters.
This same trend of people turning to the Republican party is widespread and not just a fluke of those two states. According to the national GOP offices, the GOP has either narrowed the registration gap between Republicans and Democrats or increased the lead since the last presidential election. And that is sorry news for the Dems.
The Obama Election Machine has identified Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania as key states to win. Unfortunately for them, the GOP in these states has seen a positive net change in voters since 2008.
| STATE | 2008 ADVANTAGE | 2012 ADVANTAGE | NET CHANGE |
| Colorado |
GOP +0.3% |
GOP +0.5% |
GOP +0.2 |
| Florida |
DEM +5.9% |
DEM +4.9% |
GOP +1.0 |
| Iowa |
DEM +5.1% |
DEM +1.5% |
GOP +3.6 |
| Nevada |
DEM +7.7% |
DEM +7.6% |
GOP +0.1 |
| New Hampshire |
DEM +0.2% |
GOP +1.1% |
GOP +1.3 |
| New Mexico |
DEM +18.4% |
DEM +17.4% |
GOP +1.0 |
| North Carolina |
DEM +13.8% |
DEM +12.5% |
GOP +1.3 |
| Pennsylvania |
DEM +15.4% |
DEM +13.5% |
GOP + 1.9 |
Fewer states experienced a net change that favored the Democrats, and when you combine that with the GOP trend, Obama is in trouble. Looking at some Gallup figures, we see that the Democrat party is bleeding members.
According to a Gallup poll from earlier this week, in 2008, 52 percent of Americans identified as Democrats or Democrat-leaning independents; 40 percent were Republican or Republican-leaning. By the end of 2011, the Democrats had lost that 12-point advantage, marking the lowest point since Gallup began reporting these figures in 1991.
There are many ways to quantify the Republican advantage in 2012. Partisan registration and party self-identification data are just two such ways, but they unambiguously point to the fact that the momentum is indeed on the GOP side.
Take today’s poll: Should the fourth and fifth place finishers in Saturday’s South Carolina’s Presidential Primary withdraw from the race?